The US egg market has been experiencing significant volatility and challenges in recent months, driven primarily by supply disruptions, disease outbreaks, and regulatory changes. These factors have led to sharp fluctuations in egg prices, impacting both producers and consumers.

Supply Disruptions and Avian Influenza

One of the most significant factors affecting the US egg market is the ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Between October 2024 and February 2025, over 44 million table egg layers were culled to control the spread of the disease. This has led to a tightening of supplies, particularly as the holiday season and Easter approached. As of January 1, 2025, the table egg laying flock was down 2% year over year, with further losses likely from ongoing outbreaks.

The impact of HPAI is evident in the egg production numbers. Total egg production for 2025 is forecast at 8.96 billion dozen, a slight decline from 2024. Recovery is expected in the second half of the year, assuming no new disease flare-ups. However, the situation remains precarious, with producers focused on rebuilding flocks and enhancing biosecurity measures.

Price Fluctuations

The supply disruptions have led to significant price increases. Wholesale egg prices are forecast to average $4.44 per dozen in 2025, up sharply from $3.03 in 2024. Early in 2025, prices surged past $8 per dozen as markets grappled with acute supply shortages. While prices are expected to cool into mid-year, they will likely remain elevated through December due to continued tight supplies and steady demand.

Retail prices have also been affected. In March 2025, egg prices began falling from their peak, with a national average of $5.98 per dozen the week beginning March 16, dropping to $5.51 the week beginning March 30. However, prices vary widely across the country, depending on the location of recent bird flu outbreaks and state laws requiring eggs to be cage-free.

Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics

Regulatory changes have added another layer of complexity to the egg market. Certain states, including Colorado, have implemented laws requiring the production and sale of cage-free eggs, which are generally more expensive to produce. These regulations aim to improve animal welfare but also pose operational challenges and financial burdens on producers, contributing to the rise in egg prices.

Egg exports are projected to decline 11% to 208 million dozen in 2025, after falling 6% the previous year. High prices and limited availability continue to suppress international shipments. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to rise 7% to 32 million dozen, with most destined for breaking use to ease domestic shortages.

Consumer and Producer Responses

The high egg prices have led to changes in consumer behavior. Some consumers are turning to alternative products, such as plastic eggs for Easter crafts. Craft retailer Michaels reported a 20% increase in sales of plastic egg craft kits in early March 2025.

Producers, on the other hand, are focused on rebuilding their flocks and enhancing biosecurity to prevent further outbreaks of HPAI. The industry is also exploring opportunities to increase imports to ease domestic shortages.

Future Outlook

The future of the US egg market remains uncertain. While there are hopes for a recovery in the second half of 2025, the ongoing threat of HPAI and potential regulatory changes continue to pose risks. The industry will need to navigate these challenges while balancing the need for profitability and consumer affordability.

In conclusion, the US egg market is facing significant challenges driven by supply disruptions, disease outbreaks, and regulatory changes. These factors have led to sharp price increases and volatility, impacting both producers and consumers. The path forward will require careful management of supply and demand dynamics, as well as continued efforts to mitigate the impact of HPAI and regulatory changes.